Planning poker is predicated on a course of referred to as Wideband Delphi. It’s time to rediscover the underlying technique. This iterative, consensus-driven strategy is probably the most correct estimating technique out there.
Begin by insuring everyone seems to be well-informed about what’s being estimated. Watch out that the individual explaining the venture doesn’t bias everybody. This may be mitigated by sharing this accountability.
Contain folks with good data of the area. You can begin with as few as two, though estimates will enhance as extra people are added till about 5.
Choose a various array of individuals to mitigate choice bias. Whereas area data is vital, attempt to embrace people who find themselves off the workforce and even socially distant. With a enough variety of folks, you would possibly get rid of these in authority from the train, as these individuals are inclined to affect others.
If the vary of estimates isn’t narrowing as you iterate, have everybody reveal the rationale behind their estimates, not simply the outliers.
Doc all rationales all through the method, as these could inform your last report back to stakeholders.
If it emerges that data is lacking or requested for, cease to seek out it, after which reconvene. If you reconvene, first replay the final spherical and browse out the final revealed rationales for estimates.
Three iterations are sometimes all that’s wanted for convergence, with estimates narrowed however unlikely to additional converge.
If you find yourself able to derive an estimate from this train, you could use the median or common of particular person estimates. If you wish to respect an outlier opinion, select averaging. If there’s a clump of settlement you respect extra, select the median.
The remaining dispersion in estimates can be utilized to ascertain an uncertainty round your last estimate, so as an alternative of “20 months” you would possibly report “15 to 30 months with 20 almost definitely”.
Whereas Wideband Delphi will be executed effectively, its iterations are in all probability overkill for dash planning. Nonetheless, a lot of what occurs in improvement spans a number of sprints. Subsequent time you could have an epic to scope out or a serious characteristic to decide to in a roadmap, give it a attempt.
My pal Ricardo Valerdi took a deep dive on Wideband Delphi.
